Consequences of the Egyptian insurrection:
The United States is in trouble because of its military support of Arab autocrats throughout the Middle East -- oil being the chief U.S. concern. Arab peoples who turn against their governments, as in Egypt, will consider the U.S. to be partly responsible for theirgrievances and could, if successful, cut off oil supplies to the U.S. The U.S. has historically feared democracy in Arab countries. The history of U.S. support of autocrats (despite rhetoric about democracy) has an extensive and established history: support of Marcos(Pilippines), the Shah (Iran), Duvalier (Haiti), Ceausescu (Romania),Suharto (Indonesia), Samoza (Nicaragua), Pinochet (Chile), Hussein(Iraq, until 9/11), King Fahd (Saudi Arabia), Mubarak (Egypt) and many others.
Obama has to be cautious, having recently praised Mubarak and needing to assure Saudi Arabia, which has ties to Mubarak, that the U.S. will continue its military support of Saudi Arabia in exchange for oil. Regarding Israel, also a supporter of Mubarak and sole solid U.S. ally in the Middle East, the U.S. cannot afford to disturb this relationship. Israel provides a military launching pad for U.S.armaments and would join the U.S. were war to erupt in the Middle
East. What this means is that the Palestinians will continue to be ignored by Obama despite his rhetoric about a two-state solution. The Palestinians, under the boot of the Israeli army and crowded out of land and livelihood, will pass into obscurity through neglect and, most likely diminish their numbers through emigration to surrounding
Arab countries. The tiny disastrous Gaza Strip, suffering malnutrition under Israeli siege, will likely be disposed of by being handed off to Egypt.
Hey, Baylis. This is terrific and thanks for inviting me to join the fray.
ReplyDeleteI'm in complete agreement with your take on where the USA stands on this. But I'm not pessimistic about the Palestinians. They'll continue to reproduce, struggle and fight. The Italians, during Mussolini fascism, would say, "They killed us and killed us until we were millions."
For the American imperialists and their government -- not yours or mine, despite the façade of "democracy" -- it's not about people, it's about capital, about markets, oil and pipelines. The absence of radical left (read marxist-leninist) leadership to the revolt in Egypt only means that the it will be sold out by the Egyptian leadership minus Mubarak to the highest bidder. My hope -- certainly not to be realized in the short run -- is that in time proletarian revolutionary class consciousness will emerge all over the place. It's what is required for any significant change to take hold. It's not about dictators vs. "liberal democracy" at all. It's about global capitalism and its death-dealing greed. USA democracy with its Obama figure-head, as you point out, not only supports dictators but is a major source of death in this world by various means.
What the USA and Israel are afraid of is, as Avnery has recently written, that Egypt will ultimately be lost as a "stability" partner if the Palestinian/Israeli problem isn't resolved. That's probably true most immediately, and there'll be major efforts to make sure Suleiman et al keep on trying to keep the Egyptian people believing they have a responsive government. It ultimately won't work.
NB: I believe it was a slogan of the Italian COMMUNISTS that I referred to above.
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